Lately, I’ve been noticing a lot of discussions around toss prediction, especially with so many T20 leagues and international series happening back-to-back. Thought I’d share a clearer breakdown for anyone who wants to understand how experts actually predict the toss decision (not the coin flip).

Most people think the toss is just luck — and yes, the flip itself is random. But what the captain decides after winning the toss is not random at all. Analysts study patterns like venue history, dew factor, pitch behaviour, and even the captain’s personal tendencies.

For example, some grounds consistently support chasing because of late-evening dew. Others slow down so much that captains almost always bat first. And if you follow certain captains, you’ll notice they rarely change their instinct. Add in weather reports, team combinations, and match conditions, and you can get a pretty reliable idea of what the captain will choose before the toss even happens.

If anyone else tracks toss trends, feel free to share what factors you rely on or any venues where toss decisions completely flip expectations.